Morocco beats regional growth expectations in 2025, says report

Morocco Outpaces MENA Region in Economic Growth Forecast

Projected 4.2% Growth Puts Morocco Ahead of Regional Peers

Morocco is set to shine economically in 2025, outpacing most Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries with a projected growth rate of 4.2%. This impressive forecast, according to a new report by Ernst & Young (EY), places Morocco ahead of regional rivals like Egypt, Qatar, and Oman, trailing only Gulf giants Saudi Arabia (4.3%) and the UAE (4.8%).

Factors Driving Moroccan Momentum:

The EY report highlights several factors contributing to Morocco's economic surge:

• Strong consumer demand: Fueled by robust spending, consumers are driving a significant portion of the growth.
• Sustained investment: Both public and private sectors are making substantial investments in various sectors, further boosting the economy.
• Favorable weather conditions: Improved rainfall during the winter months has aided agricultural production and eased cost pressures.
• Lower global energy prices: Reduced energy costs have provided relief for businesses and consumers alike, bolstering consumption.

Global Growth Slowdown Amidst Geopolitical Tensions:

While Morocco thrives, global economic growth is expected to cool off. EY predicts a dip to 3.0% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, down from the current 3.2%. This slowdown is attributed to rising trade tensions, persistent geopolitical instability, and volatile supply chains.

MENA Region Rebounds, Risks Remain:

Despite these global challenges, the MENA region is projected to rebound with a growth rate of 3.6% in 2025, nearly double its estimated 1.9% rate for 2024. This resurgence is driven by increasing oil output, renewed investor confidence, and improving demand across the region.

However, significant risks persist, including military tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. A major disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil route, could trigger inflation spikes and negatively impact trade, tourism, and foreign investment.

Inflation Expected to Decline Significantly:

The MENA region anticipates a substantial drop in inflation from 6.4% in 2024 to 4.3% next year. Egypt is poised for the steepest decline, transitioning from 28.2% to 13.6%. Conversely, Gulf states may experience a slight uptick, with inflation rising from 1.7% to 2.1%.

Oil Production on the Rise:

As of June, eight OPEC+ countries, including Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, collectively added over one million barrels per day across three months. This supply increase occurs despite shaky energy markets due to geopolitical risks.

Tight Monetary Policies Persist:

Despite falling inflation, tight monetary policies are anticipated to remain in place throughout the region. Egypt has cautiously begun easing interest rates after a stringent tightening cycle in 2024. In the Gulf, borrowing costs will likely align with U.S. rates due to currency ties with the dollar.